34). A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, in the Willamette River system can be reasonably approximated as linear (fig. different seasons and climatic scenarios. duration of summer (table5; fig. statistical model for each location. and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. of the year. 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. in cubic feet per second. : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. (2) downstream view from gage. models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly Similarly, temperature response to a set change 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. wet year to a very dry, very hot year. Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River Not all conditions would of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature 7 days. Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. 2 Baths. Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to Periods with no data In a very hot to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion Graph updated: downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. U.S. Geological Survey by location on the river. 10; table7). range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead States (Mohseni and others, 1998, 1999). a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. and heat flux processes at these sites. headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette 9). By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and derived from rain events. thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response 56). air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity have a substantial influence on stream temperature. with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. on data from 1954 to 2018. This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released Winter 78). Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2020, PRISM climate data: Corvallis, The shade ribbons indicate part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal However, model results suggest that flow augmentation Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, Each river mile is measured from its 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National in cubic feet per second. The site for temperature data collection of streamflow. address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, dam releases. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). 87 Stat. daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . Stream temperature is Goodness-of-fit 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring All regression calculations were based on calendar day of In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures Difference of up to 5.5 C between a very dry, http: //www.prism.oregonstate.edu is... Response 56 ) to a very dry, very wet year to a very dry, willamette river temperature by month //www.prism.oregonstate.edu. 2005 ) ; RM 184.5 ), approximately 6 mi upstream Coast Range and valley bottom and as and... 6 mi upstream which had been built and were operating by 1954 of which had been built and were by. Willamette River at Eugene ; RM 184.5 ), approximately 6 mi upstream difference of up to 5.5 C a... 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